Author: Max Kalmykov, CEO Bitsgap
Cryptocurrencies bask under sunny skies in 2024 with Bitcoin reaching unprecedented heights and Ethereum poised for a watershed SEC approval of spot ETF listings. Sentiment runs high, the altcoin season blooms across rallying assets and all metrics signal future prosperity.
While predictions remain an inexact science in these volatile waters, positive fundamentals warrant an optimistic lens on what’s to come. In this forward-looking article, I’ll foreshadow prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum for the short and long-term timeframe and spotlight developing trends set to shape market dynamics in the second half of 2024 and beyond.
BTC & ETH Prices
First, let’s take a look at the charts. In the sections that follow, we will analyze both the 1-hour and daily charts of BTC and ETH to assess their current performance and predict potential future price movements.
BTC Price Action
Pic. 1. BTC/USDT 1-hour chart.
Zooming into the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin’s latest price stands at $71,015.99—wavering between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. This range-bound motion points to building volatility in the near-term. With the current price hovering near the middle band, we can expect choppy consolidation before a directional breakout.
Supporting this neutral outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 51.73 inside equilibrium territory. With Bitcoin neither overbought nor oversold presently, sentiment appears balanced between bulls and bears in the market.
However, a slightly conflicting perspective arises per the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. The MACD line now trails its signal line as the histogram prints negative values, together suggesting a bearish momentum is underway. Yet with only a minor divergence between the two lines, this downward tendency seems both weak and likely short-lived.
Over the near-term, Bitcoin seems bound for more sideways churning as it gravitates around $71,000. With the RSI stable midway and price wavering near the middle Bollinger Band, directional conviction remains lacking to push beyond well-defined support and resistance.
However, a subtle bearish divergence on the MACD points to consolidation slightly tilted downwards. A break of the lower band may precipitate a retest of $69,000 before bulls regain control.
Alternatively, a decisive push above the upper band could spark a rally towards the next area of liquidity at $72,000.
Pic. 2. BTC/USDT daily chart.
Panning to the higher timeframe daily chart, Bitcoin’s price action unfolds constructively within the Bollinger Bands. Holding support near the middle band, the recent push towards the upper band signals an underlying bullish trend in motion. With ample room still remaining to the upper limit, Bitcoin has yet to reach an overextended state in this advance.
Affirming gathering upside momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) comes in at 62.12—having crossed into bullish territory without breaching overbought levels. This shows buyers are in control of the market narrative without being euphoric quite yet.
Finally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) aligns with bulls on its histogram’s printed green bars which expand in size. With the MACD line crossed over the signal line, all signs point towards meaningful upside continuation as bullish momentum strengthens its push.
In summary, Bitcoin’s technical posture remains optimally configured to facilitate continuation of its upside advance over the medium to long term. With the RSI holding within bullish territory and an accelerating bullish MACD, the path of least resistance points higher absent major liquidity blocks.
Initial upside targets emerge around the psychological $75,000 mark should current tailwinds persist. Beyond this, scoped objectives at $78,000 and $80,000 come into focus should bulls remain firmly in the driver’s seat.
However, traders should remain alert to any signals of growing exhaustion. Overbought RSI conditions, negative MACD divergences or failures at critical resistance levels could precipitate pullbacks. Yet the broader trend suggests dips likely to find buying interest before pushing to new highs.
ETH Price Action
Pic. 3. ETH/USDT 1-hour chart.
Now, let’s take a look at Ethereum. Ethereum last traded at $3,851.97, presently fluctuating within defined Bollinger Bands. After tapping the upper band, its recent pullback towards the middle band (now acting as support) hints bulls may digest gains. This choppy price action points to consolidation before the next directional move.
Supporting this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 55.30, lingering in neutral-to-bullish territory. With Ethereum avoiding overbought and oversold extremes, a balanced tug-of-war has emerged between buyers and sellers in the interim.
On the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the MACD line still prints above the signal line in positive zone—evidencing the broad bull trend remains intact. However, the narrowing histogram suggests upside momentum may slow as bulls catch their breath.
Over the near-term, Ethereum seems poised to trade sideways underpinned by a slight bullish slant. While both the RSI and MACD exhibit broad momentum to the upside, cues of fatigue have begun permeating.
As long as Ethereum holds the middle Bollinger Band as support, another thrust could materialize to test $3,900 before gravity kicks in. However, failing to keep this foothold may induce a retracement down towards the $3,800 area.
Until clearer directionality comes through, expect ranging consolidation to dominate the next few daily sessions. Bulls remain favored, but restraint seems likely after an aggressive advance—at least until resuming the core uptrend. Keep eyes on the bands for breakout signals of note.
Pic. 4. ETH/USDT daily chart.
On higher timeframes, Ethereum’s price activity continues tracing an emphatic bullish trajectory. With its latest push towards the upper Bollinger Band, bulls remain fully in control. Moreover, consistent closes atop the middle band (acting as support) reinforce the upside bias.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sustains its ascent at 65.46—fast approaching overbought conditions. This shows buying interest is expanding despite the possibility of a minor pullback should the RSI extend too far upwards.
Finally, the MACD aligns constructively with the rally, evidenced by the MACD line holding a strong lead above the signal line. Expanding positive histogram bars indicate bullish momentum is gaining intensity with each progressive wave upwards.
In the medium to long term, Ethereum exhibits a sturdy bullish posture poised to drive further upside over the medium to long term. With its price nudging the upper Bollinger Band and RSI sustaining lofty heights, the path of least resistance points decidedly northbound.
Initial targets emerge around psychological resistance at $4,000—which looks primed for testing should current tailwinds prevail. Further stretched objectives at $4,200 and $4,500 may come into focus if bulls remain uncompromising without showing signs of exhaustion.
However, prudent traders should monitor for any overbought signals—namely in the form of an extreme RSI topping out. Such conditions could induce consolidation or momentary pullbacks before the core uptrend resumes.
Trends for the Rest of 2024
Looking towards the latter half of 2024, two major trends look set to shape crypto market dynamics—a swelling altcoin season and accelerating development of algorithmic plus AI solutions. Combined, these trends offer traders huge upside potential if approached judiciously.
Recently, the telltale signs of an impending altcoin season have surfaced. Bitcoin’s declining market dominance signals capital rotation into altcoins, supported by building momentum across large and small-cap assets. Analysts now eye the altcoin season indicator for further confirmation—where a move above 75 would signify euphoria is afoot. With exponentially more alt projects than past cycles, frenzied rallies may center on standout sub-sectors rather than market-wide spikes.
For example, memecoins like Doge, Shiba Inu and Floki have recently captivated investor interest with their blistering gains. While this spotlight reveals a greedy, speculative mania bypassing project fundamentals, it nonetheless underscores capital flow gravitating towards altcoins.
Simultaneously, exponential growth in algorithmic and AI solutions looks set to unlock greater efficiency and customization for traders. With the market primed for experimentation post-crypto winter, innovative solutions like Bitsgap’s upcoming AI assistant arrive at an opportune junction.
By combining algorithmic strategies with AI-powered suggestions, traders can pursue personalized short, medium or long-term goals. The assistant allows traders to input their timeframe preference, which the AI subsequently optimizes by proposing the ideal settings and signals to maximize potential results. This creates a uniquely adaptive experience where humans leverage AI insights for an edge previously inaccessible.
In closing, riding both the altseason wave and AI productivity boost in tandem may catapult portfolio performance over the medium-term. Yet prudently assessing market conditions remains vital to optimize strategy.
