Author: Max Kalmykov, CEO Bitsgap
After seismic growing pains, cryptocurrency marched toward mainstream adoption in a drama-free first half of 2024. The calm signals normalization—-a welcome shift from past volatility that haunted the asset class’ reputation. Investor optimism rebounded in the stability’s wake. Yet while prices held steady, transformative progress occurred behind the scenes, setting the stage for an inflection point. So let’s review the half’s pivotal milestones and attempt to forecast significant trends likely to shape the remainder of the year.
Trends that shaped the first half of 2024
Overall, the crypto sector experienced significant growth and heightened investor interest in the first half of the year, supported by favorable macroeconomic trends. The crypto and blockchain markets attracted $2.52 billion in capital during the first quarter of this year, representing a 25 percent increase from Q4 2023. The S&P 500 has achieved approximately two dozen record highs so far in 2024 and is currently trading at a premium relative to historical forward earnings multiples. Moreover, several major markets, including those in the US, Canada, and Australia, demonstrated strong performance. The dollar also reached new highs and continued to show resilience.
The most notable development was undoubtedly the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024. Following their launch, investors poured $1.9 billion into the new venture within just the first three days of trading. Additionally, institutional crypto trading hit a record high of $17 billion that week. Interestingly, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin in the days following the ETF approval, as interest in spot Ether ETFs began to grow. At the same time, liquid restaking became a trend in the decentralized finance sector, with the combined value of the top three liquid restaking protocols reaching $461 million by January 16, reflecting substantial interest.
February was a dynamic month for the crypto market, marked by notable price movements and sustained investment from both institutional and retail investors. Bitcoin’s price began to rebound, ultimately surpassing $64,000—a milestone not seen since November 2021.
March continued the trend of high activity in the crypto market, with spot Bitcoin ETF trading volumes soaring to $111 million, nearly tripling February’s total of $42.2 billion. Meanwhile, Ethereum implemented the Dencun upgrade, which spurred increased Layer 2 adoption and significantly lowered transaction fees for Layer 2 network users. In anticipation of the upgrade, Ether’s price rose, reaching a two-year high of $4,064 on March 13 before settling back to around $3,500. Despite Ethereum’s strong start to the month, regulatory challenges persisted as the SEC postponed its decision on spot Ethereum ETFs for the second time at the beginning of March.
March also witnessed increased interest in meme coins, with Solana’s native token SOL reaching a valuation of over $160 on March 13, its highest level since January 2022.
April’s halving event temporarily slowed Bitcoin’s growth, but the cryptocurrency soon surged forward, now trading above $67K.
Trends that’ll move crypto in the second half of 2024
As previously noted, meme coin trading has become a significant trend due to the growing popularity of these tokens across various networks, including Solana and Base. Factors such as price volatility and low unit bias have fueled speculation on these coins. Since December 2023, the trading volume of meme coins has been on an upward trend. It surged dramatically on March 1, surpassing $641 million amid increased optimism in the crypto market and the possible onset of altcoin season. To take advantage of these movements and engage in altcoin trading, I recommend using trading bots like Bitsgap. These bots can help you capitalize on short-term or long-term volatility and make potentially decent gains while the altcoin season persists.
One of the key developments I anticipate is increased regulatory oversight. The SEC has ramped up its scrutiny of digital asset service providers in recent years. In Europe, the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation is set to take effect soon, while jurisdictions across Asia and other continents are also working on establishing clearer and more precise regulatory frameworks for both service providers and investors. I believe this shift will transform the market’s structure, leading to greater transparency. Consequently, this will also alter the composition of investor groups compared to those seen in the past.
The approval or rejection of spot Ethereum ETFs will also serve as a catalyst going forward.
Projections for Bitcoin vary widely. For instance, Standard Chartered has revised its year-end BTC forecast to $150,000, a 50% increase from its previous prediction of $100,000, as we move into the next quarters of 2024. Similarly, CoinFund predicts that Bitcoin could reach between $250,000 and $500,000.
Standard Chartered’s analysis draws parallels with the introduction of gold ETFs in the US and correlates ETF inflows with BTC prices. With BTC already up by 150%, spot Bitcoin ETFs are expected to rise further in 2024.
However, other market projections differ, with some forecasting Bitcoin trading as low as $40,000.
My Bitcoin outlook remains cautiously optimistic despite some exceptionally bullish projections. While Standard Chartered and CoinFund target $100-200K, I believe a closing price between $70-80K in 2024 seems more realistic. Of course, I would welcome an even more exponential ascent should it occur! Hitting the six-figure threshold would signal greater possibilities at mass adoption and of course, ample opportunities for profit.
However, crypto volatility makes tempered forecasts prudent. I expect lingering growing pains will spur market swings as regulations and infrastructure evolve. Establishing sustainable higher support levels takes time.
In any case, crossing the $90K mark would mark a major win and likely drive significant institutional engagement. So while I forecast conservatively, the potential clearly exists for exponential upside if conditions align.
